From: owner-loud-fans-digest@smoe.org (loud-fans-digest) To: loud-fans-digest@smoe.org Subject: loud-fans-digest V5 #233 Reply-To: loud-fans@smoe.org Sender: owner-loud-fans-digest@smoe.org Errors-To: owner-loud-fans-digest@smoe.org Precedence: bulk loud-fans-digest Wednesday, October 12 2005 Volume 05 : Number 233 Today's Subjects: ----------------- [loud-fans] Game theorists win Nobel Prize... [SNealons@aol.com] Re: [loud-fans] Game theorists win Nobel Prize... [Michael Mitton ] Re: [loud-fans] Game theorists win Nobel Prize... [Jenny Grover ] ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 11 Oct 2005 12:36:16 EDT From: SNealons@aol.com Subject: [loud-fans] Game theorists win Nobel Prize... Delurking long enough just to say Game theory is finally receiving its due in the scientific community. This is almost on topic. The Nobel prize for economics is going to two prominent game theorists: Game Theory wins Nobel Prize _PRINT FRIENDLY_ (http://www.abc.net.au/cgi-bin/common/printfriendly.pl?http://www.abc.net.au/ worldtoday/content/2005/s1479885.htm) _EMAIL STORY_ (http://www.abc.net.au/cgi-bin/common/mailto/mailto-nojs.pl) The World Today - Tuesday, 11 October , 2005 12:55:00 Reporter: Tanya Nolan ELEANOR HALL: If it weren't for Game Theory, many more countries could be at war. That's the assessment of the two economists who've just been recognised for their work on Game Theory, with a Nobel Prize. The mathematical tool has been applied to conflict resolution and taught in diplomacy schools all over the world for many years. Overnight, the 2005 Nobel Prize for Economics was awarded to Israeli-US citizen Robert J. Aumann and the US economist Thomas C. Schelling, as Tanya Nolan reports. TANYA NOLAN: Game Theory is a sub-field of mathematics, that's been around for more than 60 years. It's based on the premise that no matter what the circumstance, there exists a strategy that will allow one to win. It's commonly used for example by companies to analyse the effects of competition, to capture more market share or attract higher prices for their products or services. But Israeli Professor Robert J. Aumann has won this year's Nobel Economics Prize for applying Game Theory to repeated interactions, particularly between people. Flavio Menezes is a professor of regulatory economics at the ANU and an expert on Game Theory, and he explains. FLAVIO MENEZES: Letbs think of sort of a couple, and maybe the man wants to go to ballet and maybe the woman wants to go to football b theybre going to play this game over time, so be essentially over the weekend where they need to choose between going together to one of these events. And what might emerge, for instance, is a situation where we take turns. So we go together to the ballet one week and the next week we go to the football match. TANYA NOLAN: That sounds like healthy compromise. Whatbs Game Theory got to do with that? FLAVIO MENEZES: Well it does, because it tells you precisely the mechanism by which that compromise is achieved. TANYA NOLAN: The 75-year-old Professor Aumann showed that it was easier to resolve conflict within long-term relationships, than single encounters. His co-winner, Professor Thomas Schelling, successfully applied Game Theory during the Cold War, explaining that the ability to fight back is sometimes more useful than defending oneself from an attack. Professor Menezes again explains. FLAVIO MENEZES: So we might actually say take an action in the present thatb s going to reduce the number of options that you have in the future. TANYA NOLAN: So it can be helpful to policymakers and diplomats when theybre trying to negotiate tricky situations with other countries, for example? FLAVIO MENEZES: Exactly. So it does again provide you with a framework that allows you to investigate how a country would benefit from taking practical actions today. TANYA NOLAN: The Nobel Assembly describes the pair's work as transforming the social sciences far beyond the boundaries of economics. (Excerpt from A Beautiful Mind: Who among you will be the next Einstein? Find a truly original idea, and itbs the only way I will ever distinguish myself) TANYA NOLAN: The first time Game Theory was recognised by the Nobel Assembly was back in 1994, when three economists received the coveted prize, including American Professor John Nash from Princeton University, who's tortured life was recounted in the Hollywood movie A Beautiful Mind. (Excerpt from A Beautiful Mind: You are the best natural code-breaker I have ever seen) TANYA NOLAN: But for all it's benefits in helping to keep the world more peaceful, Professor Menezes warns Game Theory is no cure-all. FLAVIO MENEZES: Game Theory does allow us to step back and think through a bit more objectively. Right, so understanding this process and making it a bit more objective is helpful but Game Theory is not a panacea. ELEANOR HALL: Flavio Menezes is a professor of regulatory economics at the Australian National University, and an expert in Game Theory. He was speaking there to Tanya Nolan. _PRINT FRIENDLY_ (http://www.abc.net.au/cgi-bin/common/printfriendly.pl?http://www.abc.net.au/ worldtoday/content/2005/s1479885.htm) _EMAIL STORY_ (http://www.abc.net.au/cgi-bin/common/mailto/mailto-nojs.pl) np (in my head because I'm at work) game theory, "I mean it this time" ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 11 Oct 2005 11:01:04 -0700 From: Michael Mitton Subject: Re: [loud-fans] Game theorists win Nobel Prize... This award (which technically isn't a Nobel, BTW) disappoints me a bit. Well, I guess it's deserved, but it's the last game theory award that's deserved. The problem is that game theory is not particularly useful in non-theoretical economics. The basics of game theory developed by Nash--what most people know--has an embarrasment of riches in that it very often has no single prediction. For example, SNealon's article mentions the marriage war. In this game, one spouse wants to go to the opera, the other to football, but the worst outcome for both of them is to go to separate events. Nash's game theory has no way of predicting whether the couple goes to opera or football; they're both equilibria (and there are others). Economics likes to pattern itself on science, and science usually isn't too keen on a theory making multiple, contradictory predictions. So since Nash's time, game theorists have pretty much been focused on how to whittle away at the multitude of predictions. One route is Aumann's: Play the game repeatedly. Then you may be able to get to a unique solution where they switch between opera and football. A real example: in classical economics, the price of a good is supposed to equal marginal cost. But, if you have a limited set of companies playing repeatedly, you can maintain a price above marginal cost, which is what we usually see in the real world. Anyway, repeated game playing has been interesting and useful, but as the refiements have continued, they've added increasing degrees of mathematical complexity with little benefit in predictive power. Plus, this added complexity makes ever greater, often unbelievable, constraints on human behavior, which is particularly bad since it's well established that humans don't even act in accordance with the behavioral assumptions underlying Nash's game theory, let alone these refinements. (See the Nobel to Khanemann a couple years ago) So count me as a disillusioned game theorist. On 10/11/05, SNealons@aol.com wrote: > Delurking long enough just to say Game theory is finally receiving its due > in the scientific community. This is almost on topic. The Nobel prize for > economics is going to two prominent game theorists: > > > Game Theory wins Nobel Prize > _PRINT FRIENDLY_ > (http://www.abc.net.au/cgi-bin/common/printfriendly.pl?http://www.abc.net.au/ > worldtoday/content/2005/s1479885.htm) _EMAIL STORY_ > (http://www.abc.net.au/cgi-bin/common/mailto/mailto-nojs.pl) > The World Today - Tuesday, 11 October , 2005 12:55:00 > Reporter: Tanya Nolan > ELEANOR HALL: If it weren't for Game Theory, many more countries could be at > war. > > That's the assessment of the two economists who've just been recognised for > their work on Game Theory, with a Nobel Prize. > > The mathematical tool has been applied to conflict resolution and taught in > diplomacy schools all over the world for many years. > > Overnight, the 2005 Nobel Prize for Economics was awarded to Israeli-US > citizen Robert J. Aumann and the US economist Thomas C. Schelling, as Tanya > Nolan > reports. > > TANYA NOLAN: Game Theory is a sub-field of mathematics, that's been around > for more than 60 years. > > It's based on the premise that no matter what the circumstance, there exists > a strategy that will allow one to win. > > It's commonly used for example by companies to analyse the effects of > competition, to capture more market share or attract higher prices for their > products or services. > > But Israeli Professor Robert J. Aumann has won this year's Nobel Economics > Prize for applying Game Theory to repeated interactions, particularly between > people. > > Flavio Menezes is a professor of regulatory economics at the ANU and an > expert on Game Theory, and he explains. > > FLAVIO MENEZES: Letbs think of sort of a couple, and maybe the man wants to > go to ballet and maybe the woman wants to go to football b theybre going > to > play this game over time, so be essentially over the weekend where they need > to choose between going together to one of these events. And what might > emerge, for instance, is a situation where we take turns. So we go together > to > the ballet one week and the next week we go to the football match. > > TANYA NOLAN: That sounds like healthy compromise. Whatbs Game Theory got to > do with that? > > FLAVIO MENEZES: Well it does, because it tells you precisely the mechanism > by which that compromise is achieved. > > TANYA NOLAN: The 75-year-old Professor Aumann showed that it was easier to > resolve conflict within long-term relationships, than single encounters. > > His co-winner, Professor Thomas Schelling, successfully applied Game Theory > during the Cold War, explaining that the ability to fight back is sometimes > more useful than defending oneself from an attack. > > Professor Menezes again explains. > > FLAVIO MENEZES: So we might actually say take an action in the present > thatb > s going to reduce the number of options that you have in the future. > > TANYA NOLAN: So it can be helpful to policymakers and diplomats when > theybre > trying to negotiate tricky situations with other countries, for example? > > FLAVIO MENEZES: Exactly. So it does again provide you with a framework that > allows you to investigate how a country would benefit from taking practical > actions today. > > TANYA NOLAN: The Nobel Assembly describes the pair's work as transforming > the social sciences far beyond the boundaries of economics. > > (Excerpt from A Beautiful Mind: Who among you will be the next Einstein? > > Find a truly original idea, and itbs the only way I will ever distinguish > myself) > > TANYA NOLAN: The first time Game Theory was recognised by the Nobel Assembly > was back in 1994, when three economists received the coveted prize, > including American Professor John Nash from Princeton University, who's > tortured life > was recounted in the Hollywood movie A Beautiful Mind. > > (Excerpt from A Beautiful Mind: You are the best natural code-breaker I have > ever seen) > > TANYA NOLAN: But for all it's benefits in helping to keep the world more > peaceful, Professor Menezes warns Game Theory is no cure-all. > > FLAVIO MENEZES: Game Theory does allow us to step back and think through a > bit more objectively. Right, so understanding this process and making it a > bit > more objective is helpful but Game Theory is not a panacea. > > ELEANOR HALL: Flavio Menezes is a professor of regulatory economics at the > Australian National University, and an expert in Game Theory. He was speaking > there to Tanya Nolan. > _PRINT FRIENDLY_ > (http://www.abc.net.au/cgi-bin/common/printfriendly.pl?http://www.abc.net.au/ > worldtoday/content/2005/s1479885.htm) _EMAIL STORY_ > (http://www.abc.net.au/cgi-bin/common/mailto/mailto-nojs.pl) > np (in my head because I'm at work) > game theory, "I mean it this time" > - -- Have you heard the one about Windows Vista? Well, you will. 510.868.0296 ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 11 Oct 2005 14:41:56 -0500 From: Jeff Subject: Re: [loud-fans] Game theorists win Nobel Prize... On 10/11/05, Michael Mitton wrote: > Anyway, repeated game playing has been interesting and useful, but as > the refiements have continued, they've added increasing degrees of > mathematical complexity with little benefit in predictive power. > Plus, this added complexity makes ever greater, often unbelievable, > constraints on human behavior, which is particularly bad since it's > well established that humans don't even act in accordance with the > behavioral assumptions underlying Nash's game theory, let alone these > refinements. (See the Nobel to Khanemann a couple years ago) So > count me as a disillusioned game theorist. Yeah - I thought _Two Steps_ was kind of a letdown from _Lolita Nation_. Anyway: one problem is that people often value things one wouldn't predict. For example, one problem with educational choice programs is that parents often are more concerned with things like the quality of the football team rather than the quality of education (at home, I have an article with concrete examples, if anyone's interested). But we as a whole are probably harmed by the cumulative effect of such individual choices. At what point do harms that arise from choice become things that we should try to limit? "Laws" (including Isaac's) are responses to exactly that: limitations on everyone's freedom because some will exceed those limits in harmful ways. The related problem is predictability: pretty obviously there are some negative examples of overrigid, overzealously applied reactions to perceived social harms. - -- ...Jeff The Architectural Dance Society http://spanghew.blogspot.com ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 11 Oct 2005 16:27:57 -0400 (EDT) From: Aaron Mandel Subject: Re: [loud-fans] Game theorists win Nobel Prize... On Tue, 11 Oct 2005, SNealons@aol.com quoted: > The World Today - Tuesday, 11 October , 2005 12:55:00 > Reporter: Tanya Nolan > TANYA NOLAN: Game Theory is a sub-field of mathematics, that's been > around for more than 60 years. It's based on the premise that no matter > what the circumstance, there exists a strategy that will allow one to > win. Ohhhh, my head. a ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 11 Oct 2005 18:30:01 -0400 From: Jenny Grover Subject: [loud-fans] REM reunion http://www.cnn.com/2005/SHOWBIZ/Music/10/11/music.rem.reut/index.html ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 11 Oct 2005 18:55:36 -0400 From: Jenny Grover Subject: Re: [loud-fans] Game theorists win Nobel Prize... >ELEANOR HALL: If it weren't for Game Theory, many more countries could be at >war. > > Who could have known Scott's music would have such power? Jen ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 11 Oct 2005 20:21:17 -0700 From: dc Subject: [loud-fans] Sonic Youth six years later, reunited with their guitars: http://www.lacitybeat.com/article.php?id=2699&IssueNum=122 (maybe this bodes well for the Raveonettes, who just had all *their* gear stolen in like fashion) ------------------------------ End of loud-fans-digest V5 #233 *******************************